Sub-Saharan Africa records 11 percent trade growth as globalisation hits record level
These findings form part of the latest edition of the DHL Globalization Tracker, released today by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business
KAMPALA, October 8, 2026 — Sub-Saharan Africa’s trade value grew by 11 percent in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period last year, despite higher tariffs, geopolitical tensions and disruptions to major trade routes, according to a new report.
The region recorded the third-highest trade growth globally, behind East Asia and the Pacific, where trade value increased by 24 percent, and Europe, which registered 12 percent growth, according to the latest DHL Globalization Tracker.
The findings come after Sub-Saharan Africa recorded the world’s fastest trade value growth during the first six months of 2025.
The DHL Globalization Tracker, released on Wednesday by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business, analyses more than 30 million data points covering international flows of trade, capital, information and people.
The report found that global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year over the past 15 years, apart from the exceptional rebound following the Covid-19 pandemic.
Strong demand for goods used to build artificial intelligence [AI] infrastructure, including semiconductors and data-transmission equipment, was identified as a major driver of the growth.
Trade in AI-enabling goods accounted for 42 percent of global goods trade growth in 2025, rising to 76 percent in the first quarter of 2026, according to analysis by the World Trade Organisation and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express, said the growth demonstrated the increasing importance of AI-related supply chains to global trade.
“The biggest story in global trade right now is AI, not tariffs,” Pearson said.
He said the expansion of AI infrastructure was generating new trade flows involving chips, networking equipment and other technology-related goods.
Iran war, tariffs disrupt trade
The war involving Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted major trade routes, although the impact was concentrated in economies heavily dependent on the strategic waterway.
Trade value fell by 37 percent in Saudi Arabia and 7 percent in the United Arab Emirates during the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, the report said.
Higher US tariffs also created a headwind for global trade, although their overall impact was limited.
The report attributed this partly to the relatively small share of global imports accounted for by the United States, at 13 percent in recent years, while about half of US imports were exempt from tariff increases as of August 2026.
It also noted that most countries had avoided broad retaliation, instead seeking alternative markets through new trade agreements.
Global trade outlook strengthened
Global goods trade is projected to grow by an average of 3.4 percent annually through 2029, according to the report. This compares with an average annual growth rate of 2.7 percent during the previous decade.
Prof Steven A Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at New York University’s Stern School of Business, said the stronger outlook demonstrated the resilience of international trade despite recent shocks.
“The surprise is not only that global trade kept growing through new tariffs and the Iran war,” Altman said. “The outlook is now stronger than it was before either shock.”
He said the expansion of AI-related trade demonstrated the continued demand for goods and services produced through international supply chains.
Africa’s trade resilience
Hennie Heymans, CEO of DHL Express Sub-Saharan Africa, said the region’s trade performance demonstrated resilience amid geopolitical and market uncertainty.
“The narrative around Africa often focuses on challenges. What this data shows is that trade across the region continues to grow, even amid geopolitical uncertainty and market disruption,” Heymans said.
He said the next challenge was to ensure that more small and medium-sized enterprises could access international markets and expand beyond their domestic economies.
East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest trade growth during the period, while also increasing the share of trade conducted within the region.
Intra-regional trade in East Asia and the Pacific rose from 57 percent in 2025 to 60 percent during the first five months of 2026, with supply chains supporting the AI boom contributing to the increase.
US-China trade ties weaken
The report also found a significant decline in trade ties between the United States and China, although it said the development had not resulted in a broader fragmentation of the global economy.
US-China trade accounted for 3.5 percent of global trade at its peak in 2015, but the share fell to 1.6% during the first five months of 2026.
The two countries accounted for less than 1 percent of international business investment, the report said.
However, the report noted that the decline in direct trade overstated the extent to which US companies had reduced their dependence on China.
Goods imported into the United States from other countries increasingly contain Chinese materials and components. When these indirect imports are included, US reliance on China had declined only slightly through 2024, the latest year for which data were available.
Globalisation reaches record level
The report said globalisation reached a record level of 25.8 percent in 2025, partly supported by AI-related trade and investment.
The index measures international flows of trade, capital, information and people on a scale ranging from 0 percent, representing no cross-border flows, to 100 percent, where borders and distance have no impact.
All four categories contributed to the new record, although information flows remained the most internationalised, followed by capital and trade. People flows remained the least globalised.
The DHL Globalization Tracker is commissioned by DHL and authored by Prof Steven A Altman and Caroline R Bastian of New York University’s Stern School of Business.
The tracker draws on more than 25 public, private and academic sources and provides data on international flows of trade, capital, information and people.
It was previously known as the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker. The scope and methodology remain unchanged despite the name change.
The report and accompanying interactive data are available through DHL’s Globalization Tracker platform.
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