Africa’s coffee exports drop 24.1 percent in May 2026
The contraction was driven largely by Ethiopia and Uganda, whose combined exports fell to an estimated 1.31ml bags from 1.77mln bags in May 2025, representing a decline of 26.0 percent
KAMPALA, July 13, 2026 — Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa fell by 24.1 percent in May 2026 to 1.63 million bags, down from 2.15mln bags in May 2025, according to the latest Coffee Market Report published by the International Coffee Organization [ICO].
The contraction was driven largely by Ethiopia and Uganda, whose combined exports fell to an estimated 1.31ml bags from 1.77mln bags in May 2025, representing a decline of 26.0 percent. The sharp reduction was largely attributed to a base effect, with the May 2025 figures representing the highest May export volumes on record for both countries.
According to the report, “the May 2025 figures represented the highest May export volumes on record” for both Ethiopia and Uganda, making comparisons with this year’s exports particularly challenging.
For Ethiopia and Uganda, coffee year 2024/25 was a record year for exports. These record volumes were the result of a combination of a good harvest and coffee price-induced releases of stocks, which expanded exportable supplies.
In Uganda, the Ministry of Agriculture attributed the strong crop from the main harvest in the Masaka and south-western regions to the record exports registered in May 2025. By contrast, in coffee year 2025/26, the incentive to release additional stocks has diminished, with the ICO Composite Indicator Price [I-CIP] standing 23.4 percent lower in May 2026 than it was a year earlier.
Meanwhile, global exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 3.2 percent to 12.38mln bags in May 2026, as compared with 12.78mln bags in May 2025. The dynamics of the first eight months of coffee year 2025/26 have been uneven, although they have been more consistent with historical seasonal movements than the atypical pattern observed in coffee year 2024/25.
The report noted that “the movements of the four regions in May 2026 were mixed”, with exports from Africa and the Caribbean, Central America & Mexico decreasing, while shipments from Asia & Oceania and South America increased.
Exports by coffee group – Green beans
In May 2026, global green bean exports totalled 10.8mln bags, down 4.1 percent from 11.26mln bags in May 2025. This marked the fifth monthly decline in the first eight months of coffee year 2025/26, bringing cumulative year-to-date exports down by 1.1 percent to 82.03mln bags.
The latest decline was driven by Arabica coffees, whose exports have been on a downward trend for 13 consecutive months since April 2025, including a 9.3 percent fall in May 2026. Consequently, Arabica exports for the first eight months of the current coffee year were down by 6.9 percent.
The Arabicas’ share of global green bean exports, measured using a 12-month moving average, declined to 60.95 percent in May 2026 from 64.70 percent in May 2025. This was the lowest share recorded since April 2015, when it stood at 60.93 percent.
The decline in May 2026 was led mainly by Brazilian Naturals, although all Arabica groups recorded lower export volumes. Brazilian Naturals have also been the principal contributor to the prolonged downturn in Arabica exports, with Colombian Milds reinforcing the trend, particularly between December 2025 and April 2026.
Total Arabica exports fell to 6.46mln bags in May 2026, down 9.3% from 7.12mln bags in May 2025. As a result, Arabicas accounted for 60.2 percent of total green bean exports during the first eight months of coffee year 2025/26, compared with 64.0 percent during the corresponding period a year earlier.
Green bean exports of Robustas increased by 4.8 percent to 4.34mln bags in May 2026, up from 4.14 million bags in May 2025. The increase was driven mainly by Brazil, where exports surged by 195.6 percent to 0.61mln bags from 0.21mln bags in May 2025.
According to the report, “the sharp increase reflects differences in the timing of the current and previous Robusta harvests”. The 2026 harvest began in late March, whereas the 2025 harvest started in late May. Brazil’s Robusta harvest typically begins in April, with exports following a cyclical pattern, reaching their lowest point in January or February before increasing with the new harvest and easing again in September.
However, during coffee year 2024/25, exports did not reach their lowest point until April 2025 because of the delayed harvest, whereas in coffee year 2025/26 this occurred in January 2026. The differing timing of these turning points contributed to the strong year-on-year growth recorded in May 2026 and the preceding two months.
Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 3.6 percent to 1.51mln bags in May 2026, up from 1.46mln bags in May 2025. Viet Nam, Brazil and India were the leading exporters of soluble coffee during the month, shipping 0.36mln, 0.36 million and 0.30mln bags, respectively.
Exports of roasted coffee increased by 10.8 percent in May 2026 to 0.07mln bags, compared with 0.06 million bags in May 2025.
Green beans remained the dominant form of coffee exported, accounting for 86.5 percent of total exports during the first eight months of coffee year 2025/26. Soluble coffee accounted for 13.0 percent, while roasted coffee represented the remaining 0.5 percent of total exports.
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