Global coffee exports drop 11.6 percent in September 2023

KAMPALA, November 6, 2023 – Global green bean exports in September 2023 were 7.8 million bags, as compared with 8.83mln bags in the same month of the previous year, down 11.6 percent, says the International Coffee Organisation [ICO] in its Coffee Market Report October 2023.

“For coffee year 2022/23, exports of green beans were down 5.5 percent to 110.81mln bags from 117.28mln bags in coffee year 2021/22. The global macro-economic environment was not conducive to consumer confidence in coffee year 2022/23, with global inflation and interest rates in many of the key advanced economies high and rising, increasing the cost of living and thus reducing disposable income levels for a very large section of the world,” the report says

According to the report, the drop in global exports of green beans in coffee year 2022/23 may lie more with logistics/the supply chain than the economy and actual consumption of coffee. “Average green bean exports amounted to 118.13mln bags in coffee years 2018/19–2021/22, as compared with an average 109.59mln bags for coffee years 2014/15–2017/18, a jump of 8.54mln bags. This suggests a build-up of stocks in nonproducing countries which have been heavily drawn down in the past 12 months.”

Africa

Meanwhile, according to the report seen by theCooperator, exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 1.9 percent to 1.21mln bags in September 2023 from 1.23mln bags in September 2022. For coffee year 2022/23, the region’s exports were down 1.4 percent to 13.53mln bags from 13.73mln bags in coffee year 2021/22. ‘The relatively strong global demand for Robustas was the fundamental source of Africa’s positive export growth rate in coffee year 2022/23.”

“Moreover, particularly during Q4 of coffee year 2022/23, the reduced volume of exports from the Asia & Oceania region, and more pointedly from Vietnam, strengthened Africa’s own export performance. Uganda, the largest producer and exporter of Robusta coffee in Africa, took the opportunity to fill the gap in the market left by Vietnam and the Asia & Oceania region as a whole, the report says.

According to Uganda Coffee Development Authority [UCDA], Coffee exports in September 2023, amounted to 577,073 60- kilo bags. This comprised 543,361 bags of Robusta and 33,712 bags of Arabica.  “This was an increase of 12.76 percent and 30.38 percent in quantity and value respectively compared to the same month last year.”

UCDA adds: “The monthly coffee exports performance was higher than the previous year which was seen in Robusta exports. This was partly on account of a good crop harvest in South-Western region and the prevailing good prices on the global scene which prompted exporters to release their stocks.”

Meanwhile, Uganda’s coffee exports for the coffee year [2022/23] totaled 6.14 million bags worth US$ 940.36mln compared to 5.86mln bags worth US$ 877.66mln in the previous coffee year [2021/22].

Mexico & Central America

In September 2023, ICO says exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico & Central America were down 9.2 percent to 0.74mln bags as compared with 0.81mln bags in September 2022. For coffee year 2022/23, the region’s exports were down 3.1 percent to 15.3mln bags from 15.78mln bags in coffee year 2021/22. The downturn was primarily driven by Guatemala and Mexico, which suffered 11.5 percent and 16.5 percent decreases, respectively. However, the mitigating factor that limited the region’s fall in exports to a low single-digit decrease was Honduras’ 13.5 percent increase.

Asia & Oceania

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania decreased by 35.7 percent to 1.91mln bags in September 2023 as compared with 2.98mln bags in September 2022. For coffee year 2022/23, the region’s exports were down 0.9 percent to 43.56mln bags from 43.95mln bags in coffee year 2021/22, says ICO.

“Asia & Oceania’s fortunes are closely tied to the fortunes of the Robustas and many of the same factors that explain the latter’s single-digit increase also explain the former’s. From coffee year 2018/19 to 2022/23, 89.1 percent of the total green bean exports from Asia & Oceania were Robustas, on average. In coffee year 2022/23, Vietnam’s exports were up 0.4 percent to 28.29mln bags from 28.19mln bags in coffee year 2021/22.”

South America

In September 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 3.4 percent to 4.74 million bags. For coffee year 2022/23, the region’s exports were down 11.0 percent to 50.59mln bags from 56.83 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. The region’s two largest producers and exporters, Brazil and Colombia, saw their total exports fall by 7.9 percent and 12.8 percent, respectively. South America’s fortunes are closely tied to the fortunes of the Arabicas and many of the same factors that explain the latter’s double-digit fall also explain the former’s.

From coffee year 2018/19 to 2022/23, 93.2 percent of the total green bean exports from South America were Arabicas, on average. Drawdown of stocks in consuming countries and substitution towards the Robustas are the two main factors. “Two specific and additional factors are that Brazil’s export performance was poor due to its relatively limited supply following two consecutive years of below-par harvests; and Colombia struggled with weather-impacted supply conditions that negatively affected the origin’s export volume.”

https://thecooperator.news/global-coffee-exports-drop-9-6-percent-in-march-2023/

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