KAMPALA, November 9, 2026 – Global food commodity prices declined by 1.2 percent in October, driven by weaker import demand and falling prices of cereals, dairy products and meat, according to the latest data released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO].
The FAO Food Price Index [FFPI], which tracks monthly changes in international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 133.9 points in October, down 1.6 points from its revised September level.
Despite the monthly decline, the index remained 5.9 percent higher than its level a year earlier, although it was 16.4 percent below its peak recorded in March 2022.
The decline was largely driven by lower prices across most commodity groups, which outweighed a sharp increase in sugar prices and a marginal rise in vegetable oil quotations.
The FAO Cereal Price Index fell by 4.5 percent in October, following subdued international demand and improved production prospects, particularly in Argentina.
Wheat prices declined after four consecutive months of increases, supported by expectations of improved supplies and easing constraints on Black Sea exports. However, continued disruptions to logistics in the region limited the extent of the price decline.
International maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, reflecting harvest-related pressure in the United States, expectations of ample supplies from major South American exporters and prospects of reduced tensions in the Black Sea region.
In contrast, the FAO All Rice Price Index rose by 1.6 percent, driven by harvest delays in some exporting countries, adverse weather conditions and rising production costs.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased marginally by 0.3 percent, as higher prices of soybean and sunflower oils offset a decline in rapeseed oil quotations.
Soybean oil prices reached their highest levels since late 2022, supported by firm demand from the biofuel sector and seasonally declining supplies from South America. Sunflower oil prices also recovered from multi-month lows amid tight export supplies from the Black Sea region.
The FAO Meat Price Index declined by 1.2 percent compared with September, although it remained slightly above its level a year earlier. Prices of pig, ovine and bovine meat fell, while poultry prices remained broadly stable.
The FAO Dairy Price Index dropped by 1.1 percent, reflecting lower international butter and cheese prices amid ample supplies and subdued buying interest. These declines outweighed further increases in milk powder prices.
Sugar was the only major commodity group to record a substantial increase. The FAO Sugar Price Index rose by 6.6 percent in October, marking its fourth consecutive monthly increase and reaching its highest level since December 2024.
The index was also 28.8 percent higher than its level a year earlier.
FAO attributed the increase mainly to rainfall-related disruptions to sugarcane harvesting and processing in Brazil’s key Centre-South producing region, alongside concerns about production prospects in India, the European Union and Thailand during the 2026/27 season.
Global cereal production to remain high despite projected decline
In a separate report, FAO forecast global cereal production to decline from the record level recorded in 2025, although output in 2026 is expected to remain the second highest on record at 2,999 million tonnes.
According to the latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, production is expected to fall across all major cereal groups, with wheat registering the largest decline, while coarse grains are projected to record only a marginal decrease.
Rice production is forecast to decline for the first time in four seasons, falling by 2.5 percent to 552mln tonnes, largely due to poor producer margins and adverse weather conditions associated with El Niño.
Global cereal utilisation in the 2026/27 season is projected to increase marginally by 0.2 percent to 2,971mln tonnes.
Food consumption is expected to account for most of the increase, with food use of wheat and rice projected to rise by 0.8 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively. However, the projected growth is slightly below the rate of global population growth.
Meanwhile, global cereal stocks are forecast to increase by 17.2mln tonnes, or 1.8 percent, by the close of the 2027 seasons.
The anticipated increase is largely attributed to higher wheat inventories in the Russian Federation and Ukraine, where export disruptions are contributing to the accumulation of supplies.
FAO projects the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio at 32.4 percent, slightly above the previous season’s level.
However, international cereal trade is expected to contract by 3.3 percent to 507.7mln tonnes in 2026/27, largely due to an anticipated 8.6 per cent decline in wheat trade.
Shipments from all major wheat-exporting countries are projected to fall amid supply and logistical constraints.
41 countries still require external food assistance
FAO’s November 2026 edition of the Crop Prospects and Food Situation report indicates that 41 countries and territories continue to require external assistance to meet their food needs, including 31 in Africa.
The report, which provides an assessment of global crop prospects, food markets and food security conditions, also highlights the situation in Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries [LIFDCs].
Aggregate cereal production among LIFDCs is forecast at approximately 126.5mln tonnes in 2026, representing an increase of about 2 per cent compared with both 2025 and the five-year average.
The improvement is largely expected to come from a strong recovery in production in Asia, particularly the Near East, while output among African LIFDCs is projected to remain close to average levels.
FAO said persistent conflicts and insecurity remain the main drivers of the most severe cases of acute food insecurity, while weather shocks associated with the strong El Niño event are worsening conditions in several subregions.
The organisation warned that El Niño-related effects on agricultural production could remain severe in several subregions into 2027, potentially worsening acute food insecurity.
Weather and trade uncertainty cloud agricultural markets
Meanwhile, the Agricultural Market Information System [AMIS], hosted by FAO, released its latest monthly Market Monitor on Friday, indicating that markets for key agricultural commodities remain relatively well supplied despite uncertainties surrounding weather conditions and policy decisions.
The report warns that strengthening El Niño conditions could increase weather-related risks as the 2026/27 agricultural season progresses.
In its featured analysis, AMIS notes that the impact of extreme weather events, including droughts, heatwaves, floods and storms, depends partly on how governments and international markets respond to production disruptions.
It argues that open trade can help reduce vulnerability and redistribute food supplies between regions, while export restrictions risk amplifying market disruptions and worsening supply shortages.
https://thecooperator.news/fao-food-price-index-rises-in-february-for-first-time-in-five-months/
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