Early flowering raises coffee quality concerns in Brazil amid unusually wet weather
Greg Oddo, a weather strategist at Sucafina, said the harvest delays have coincided with fluctuations in coffee prices, reflecting growing market concerns that the crop may not meet the quality standards buyers normally expect
BRASILIA, August 6, 2026 — Brazil’s coffee-growing regions are witnessing unusually early flowering this year as abnormal weather patterns linked to the El Niño phenomenon continue to affect production, raising concerns over bean quality.
Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter of coffee, typically harvests its crop during the Southern Hemisphere’s winter, when dry conditions facilitate field operations and allow beans to dry properly before shipment.
This season, however, persistent rainfall throughout June and July disrupted harvesting, delayed shipments and pushed up arabica coffee prices on the New York market.
According to coffee industry experts, the unusually high moisture levels could adversely affect bean quality. Guilherme Teixeira, an agronomist with coffee cooperative Cooxupé, said excessive moisture increases the risk of fermentation and bean losses during harvesting and processing.
Greg Oddo, a weather strategist at Sucafina, said the harvest delays have coincided with fluctuations in coffee prices, reflecting growing market concerns that the crop may not meet the quality standards buyers normally expect.
Despite the quality concerns, Oddo said Brazil’s coffee crop is still expected to be exceptionally large, forecasting record production of more than 75 million 60-kilogram bags.
The unseasonal rains have also triggered flowering as early as July, whereas the main flowering period normally occurs between September and October.
José Donizeti Alves, a professor of plant physiology at the Federal University of Lavras, said the premature flowering could result in fruits at different stages of development competing for the tree’s energy, increasing the likelihood of early fruit drop.
However, Oddo believes the abundant moisture could also prove beneficial by helping coffee trees remain healthy and improving fruit retention on the branches, potentially offsetting some of the negative effects of the unusual weather.
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