El Niño threat intensifies as warnings dominate global climate platforms
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre [ICPAC] had earlier issued a similar warning, raising fears that the event could persist until February 202
KAMPALA, August 5, 2026 — The World Meteorological Organization [WMO] and other global climate monitoring centres have warned of an imminent El Niño event during August and September, urging governments and other response agencies to strengthen their preparedness and response mechanisms.
The global weather watchdog says the event has a high likelihood of causing disastrous impacts in several parts of Africa, with the Horn of Africa facing particularly severe exposure.
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre [ICPAC] had earlier issued a similar warning, raising fears that the event could persist until February 2027.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterised by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Historically, El Niño events have been associated with enhanced rainfall across many parts of East Africa, including Uganda, increasing the risks of flooding, landslides, infrastructure damage, disease outbreaks and disruption of livelihoods.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres described the phenomenon as a disastrous occurrence that is already ‘inside the house’ and turning up the heat.
“Adding fuel to a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires and record hot seas, fossil fuels are fanning the flames of this crisis. Expansion must stop; more oil and gas will lead to a more combustible future unless we act now,” he told a meeting in Geneva.
The Ministry of Water and Environment has also issued similar warnings to communities, although it has not specified the exact magnitude of the expected impacts on livelihoods.
Preliminary climate outlooks suggest a high probability of above-normal rainfall episodes in several parts of the country during the upcoming September-to-December 2026 rainfall season, commonly referred to as SOND.
The Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Water and Environment, Okot Okidi, said the ministry is closely monitoring the situation, while alerts have been shared with other ministries and departments to facilitate appropriate responses.
“Areas that are particularly vulnerable include flood-prone lowlands, urban centres with inadequate drainage systems, river catchments, wetlands and mountainous regions susceptible to landslides,” Okidi said.
He added: “We are monitoring the evolution of this climate phenomenon through continuous analysis of global, regional and national climate conditions. We will continue to provide timely advisories and early warning information to support preparedness and informed decision-making.”
Okidi urged all stakeholders to ensure appropriate preparedness and planning, and to take precautionary measures. These include strengthening disaster preparedness and response plans; clearing drainage channels and flood pathways; avoiding settlement and cultivation in flood-prone and landslide-prone areas; enhancing community awareness and early-warning dissemination; preparing contingency measures in all climate-sensitive sectors, including agriculture, health, transport, water resources and infrastructure; and following official weather and climate advisories.
Multiple forecasts have reportedly indicated that El Niño is steadily intensifying towards a strong event, with average sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2.9°C.
In addition to the strengthening El Niño conditions, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD] — a climate pattern in which the western Indian Ocean becomes warmer while the eastern Indian Ocean becomes cooler than average — is also forecast.
These oceanic drivers could amplify regional climate impacts, including drought, flooding and wildfire risks around the Indian Ocean basin. The Atlantic Ocean is also expected to remain warmer than average.
The last time the Horn of Africa experienced El Niño conditions was in 2023–2024, causing severe damage to infrastructure, with several roads and bridges washed away, towns and low-lying cities flooded, gardens destroyed and lives lost in landslides.
In South Sudan, multiple gardens were washed away, contributing to acute food insecurity in the aftermath, while in Somalia and Eritrea, settlements were disrupted.
In Uganda, several cities experienced flooding, aquatic life was swept from Lakes Kyoga and Victoria, while landslides claimed scores of lives in eastern Uganda.
https://thecooperator.news/el-nino-could-cut-brazils-coffee-harvest-by-up-to-20-percent/
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