Weatherman warns of excessive rain, floods between June – September
Conversely, the report points out that there is a high chance of below-average rainfall over the coastal areas of Somalia and Kenya, northwestern South Sudan, and southeastern Ethiopia
KAMPALA, May 22, 2025 — Countries in the Eastern African region have been warned of much more rain and wetter conditions between June and September, including incidents of flooding and other extreme conditions.
In their quarterly seasonal climate outlook, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre [ICPAC] predicts that effective early next month, all through to September 2025, countries including Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Kenya and South Sudan are expected to receive more than normal seasonal rainfall that would likely impact on their agricultural sector, but also social services.
The outlook mentions a high probability of beyond normal rainfall in central Sudan, eastern South Sudan, Southwest Ethiopia, Western Kenya and Eastern and northeastern Uganda, resulting into extreme conditions including floods, leading to destruction of food crops, infrastructure including roads, settlements and sweeping through gardens.
It further points out that Western Uganda, South Sudan, Djibouti, parts of Sudan and Eritrea are expected to be wetter that the average conditions in the entire region, a condition that comes with outbreak of several ailments including malaria, and severe asthma attacks among individuals.
Conversely, the report points out that there is a high chance of below-average rainfall over the coastal areas of Somalia and Kenya, northwestern South Sudan, and southeastern Ethiopia, while the onset of the rains is likely to be normal over most parts of the region, with a few regions that are expected to have an early onset. However, in parts of western Ethiopia, a delayed onset is more probable.
On the contrary, countries in the southern Greater Horn of Africa including Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi are expected to remain mostly dry, all through the months from June to September, as is typically not their main rainy season.
The outlook predicts a likelihood of warmer-than-average conditions over much of the region, with higher probabilities over southern Ethiopia and Somalia, eastern Kenya, and northern Sudan, while average to below average temperatures are expected over the Karamoja cluster, northwestern Kenya, Djibouti, Eritrea, central Sudan, and northeastern Ethiopia.
While releasing the report during the Greater Horn of Africa [GHA] Climate Outlook Forum [GHACOF70] in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, the Deputy Executive Secretary of IGAD, Mohamed Ware emphasized the urgency of collective action by all countries.
“The Greater Horn of Africa is experiencing unprecedented climate extremes, ranging from droughts and floods to unpredictable rainfall, putting our food systems, water resources, and livelihoods at serious risk. We must institutionalize climate services and work together across borders and sectors to ensure climate risks are integrated into every decision,” he said.
He warned that, while wetter conditions bring opportunities for agriculture and water access, they also raise the risk of flooding and waterborne diseases.
The forum called for increased investment into such efforts to promote pro-activeness against reactiveness in the African countries in the face of climate change.
The forum produced a resolution arguing countries to invest in efforts to expand systems that will be able to generate knowledge-based, user-tailored climate information, essential for guiding policy decisions and reaching the grass root communities that are most vulnerable to climate risks.
The season running between June to September is so critical for countries in the northern and western parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, as it contributes to over 50 percent of annual rainfall, while the Sudan receive more than 80 percent
This makes the period particularly significant for early action and planning in sectors such as Agriculture and food security, water resources, disaster risk reduction, and in other climate-sensitive socio-economic sectors.
In Uganda, there have always been annual incidents including flooding in Mbale with River Manafa bursting its banks annually, sweeping through Mbale City, destroying roads and other public service structures. Annual flooding in Karamoja region leaves roads and gardens washed away in the region, an effects that is always transmitted to Katakwi, Amuria and Kapelebyong districts in Teso.
Disease out-breaks are also common in parts of Teso, Lango and Acholi due to the wetter conditions as predicted in the parts of the country.
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