KAMPALA, October 21, 2025 — Uganda’s coffee sector has shown optimistic performance as global Arabica prices surged while the country’s premium Bugisu AA grade held steady. This is according to the latest Daily Coffee Market Analysis Report issued by the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries [MAAIF].
The report, released yesterday shows that New York Arabica Futures, a key global benchmark, registered significant gains due to tightening supplies and weather-related risks in major producing countries. However, local export and farm-gate prices for Uganda’s high-value Arabica remained largely stable, a sign of resilience and strong quality-based pricing structures within the domestic market.
The analysis attributed the international price rally to shrinking coffee inventories and unfavorable weather in Brazil, the world’s largest Arabica producer. The December 2025 Arabica futures contract closed at 397.45 US cents per pound, supported by certified coffee stocks on the Intercontinental Exchange [ICE] falling to a 19-month low. The decline signals sustained demand from global roasters and limited supply on hand. Continued dry conditions across Brazil’s coffee belt have heightened concerns about future yields, adding further upward pressure on prices.
Despite the volatility abroad, Uganda’s top-grade Bugisu AA Arabica—grown on the slopes of Mt. Elgon maintained a firm price. The report placed the indicative export price for Bugisu AA at 392.45 US cents per pound, equivalent to 30,152 Ugandan shillings per kilogramme. This consistency reflects a resilient market driven by long-term contracts, traceable supply chains, and a stable premium based on quality rather than speculation.
According to the ministry’s analysis, certified Bugisu AA farmers continue to attract reliable demand from specialty coffee buyers who value Uganda’s traceable, high-altitude beans for their distinct flavor profile. “Uganda’s Arabica market is demonstrating structural stability,” the report noted. “Local prices are underpinned by quality consistency rather than short-term global fluctuations.”
While Arabica gained globally, Robusta coffee prices recorded declines, muting overall market enthusiasm. The London Robusta futures for November dropped by US$ 62 to close at US$ 4,552 per tonne, reflecting different supply dynamics in the lower-grade bean market and pressure from Southeast Asian exports.
Meanwhile, the Ugandan shilling’s exchange rate, reported at 1 US$ = Shs 3,835, provided some support for exporters. The stronger dollar earnings translated into higher returns in local currency, helping maintain profitable margins for farmers and exporters even as Robusta prices softened.
The ministry concluded that while global coffee markets remain vulnerable to weather shocks and speculative swings, Uganda’s focus on quality control, traceability, and farmer training continues to safeguard its position in the premium Arabica segment. By maintaining these standards, the country’s producers are able to command stable prices and weather international volatility.
“By maintaining strict quality standards, Uganda has secured a reliable premium for its high-value Arabica,” the report stated. “This strategy ensures profitability for farmers even when global markets fluctuate.”
Uganda’s coffee industry, anchored by the Bugisu AA brand, is proving that stability built on quality can be just as valuable as a price rally and far more sustainable in the long run.
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