KAMPALA, November 22, 2024 — Uganda’s coffee exports for the twelve months from November 2023 to October 2024 totaled 6.38 million bags, generating US$ 1.46 billion [approximately Shs 5.6 trillion]. This is an increase compared to the previous year [November 2022 to October 2023], when exports amounted to 6.16mln bags worth US$ 953.14mlnn, according to the latest report from the Uganda Coffee Development Authority [UCDA].
The report indicates a 3.60 percent increase in the quantity of coffee exported and a significant 53.38 percent rise in value year-on-year.
For October 2024, the report states that coffee exports amounted to 496,820 60-kilogramme bags, valued at US$ 139.05mln. Of this, 457,853 bags of Robusta were valued at US$ 127.46mln, and 38,967 bags of Arabica were valued at US$ 11.59mln. This represents an increase of 5.77 percent in quantity and 76.27 percent in value compared to the same month the previous year.
The report highlights that, in October 2023, Robusta exports increased by 11.66 percent in quantity and 90.64 percent in value, while Arabica exports saw a decline of 34.67 percent in quantity and 3.64 percent in value. The drop in Arabica exports is attributed to the biannual off-year cycle and poor flowering in the Mt. Elgon region.
Despite the decrease in Arabica exports, the report notes that the overall value of coffee exports was higher due to a global rise in coffee prices, driven by dry conditions in Brazil and Vietnam—the world’s largest producers of Arabica and Robusta coffee. These conditions are expected to impact crop yields, leading to a potential supply deficit in the 2024/25 season.
Outlook for November 2024
Coffee exports are projected to reach 520,000 60-kilogram bags. The main harvest season in the northern hemisphere has begun, and the harvesting season for the fly crop in the Greater Masaka and South-Western regions is also underway.
Global coffee outlook
World coffee production for the 2024/25 season is forecast to increase by 7.1mln bags, reaching a total of 176.2mln bags. This is primarily due to continued recovery in Brazil and a rebound in output from Indonesia. Global coffee exports are expected to rise by 3.6mln bags to 123.1mln, driven by strong shipments from Indonesia and Brazil.
Global coffee consumption is forecast to grow by 3.1mln bags, reaching 170.6mln, while ending stocks are projected to rise by 1.9mln bags to 25.8mln, reversing a three-year decline, according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Coffee: World Markets and Trade Report June 2024.
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