Uganda must transform productivity to achieve tenfold growth- Minister
Musasizi made the remarks on Thursday at the 10th High-Level Economic Growth Forum at the Sheraton Kampala Hotel, where policymakers, researchers, business leaders and development experts gathered under the theme, “Realising Uganda’s Tenfold Growth Strategy in a Rapidly Changing Global Economy.”
KAMPALA, August 28, 2026 — Uganda must accelerate economic transformation, raise productivity and strengthen collaboration between government and the private sector if it is to achieve its target of growing the economy tenfold by 2040, Finance Minister Henry Musasizi has said.
Musasizi made the remarks on Thursday at the 10th High-Level Economic Growth Forum at the Sheraton Kampala Hotel, where policymakers, researchers, business leaders and development experts gathered under the theme, “Realising Uganda’s Tenfold Growth Strategy in a Rapidly Changing Global Economy.”
Opening the forum, the minister said Uganda’s ambition to become a competitive upper-middle-income economy was necessary but would require the country to respond effectively to rapid changes in technology, global trade, investment patterns, geopolitics, climate and development finance.
“The task before us is to position Uganda to respond with agility, resilience and purpose,” Musasizi said.
He said achieving the tenfold growth target would require stronger government-private sector partnerships, predictable policies, adequate infrastructure, higher productivity and the creation of more jobs.
Musasizi also noted that the forum, which has been held for the past 10 years since 2017, had contributed to evidence-based policymaking in Uganda through collaboration with the International Growth Centre [IGC].
He said Uganda’s economy grew by 6.4 percent in the 2025/26 financial year, up from 6.3 percent the previous year, describing the performance as evidence of a full post-Covid-19 recovery.
The minister urged researchers to provide evidence that challenges conventional thinking and called on policymakers and business leaders to engage openly as the country begins preparations for the 2027/28 national budget.
He said he expected recommendations from the forum to influence the national budget and the implementation of the Tenfold Growth Strategy before officially declaring the forum open.
Infrastructure must translate into productivity
On his part, Finance Ministry Permanent Secretary and Secretary to the Treasury [PSST] Ramathan Ggoobi said Uganda had made significant progress in infrastructure development but now needed to ensure that investments were translating into higher productivity.
“We have expanded infrastructure in the past nine to ten years, but the test now is whether this infrastructure is raising productivity,” Ggoobi said.
The PSST said Uganda had strengthened its public investment management system through the Integrated Budgeting Portal, which is intended to improve transparency, sequencing and prioritisation of public projects.
According to Ggoobi, projects must now meet appraisal and readiness requirements before they can be included in the national budget.
He said the focus was shifting from simply achieving economic growth to ensuring that growth resulted in structural transformation, with Ugandans moving from subsistence agriculture into more productive and modern sectors.
“By transformation, we mean having Ugandans move into productive, modern sectors, working outside subsistence agriculture,” Ggoobi said.
He added that government must continue assessing whether existing infrastructure was contributing sufficiently to productivity and economic transformation.
Technology offers opportunities but carries risks
The forum also examined the impact of technology and artificial intelligence on Uganda’s economic prospects.
Shahrukh Wani Head of Data and AI Policy Partnerships at IGC said Uganda needed to build domestic capacity to understand and use emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence, rather than becoming solely a consumer of technologies developed elsewhere.
“Assembling engineers, economists and policy experts who grasp the technology is essential for government to develop its own internal AI capacity,” Wani said.
He urged Uganda to prioritise investments that would remain valuable regardless of how quickly artificial intelligence develops, including reliable electricity, better data, broadband connectivity and digitalisation.
Wani said Uganda could make deliberate investments in digital infrastructure, skills, institutions, research and public-sector adoption to ensure that technology contributed directly to economic transformation.
On his part, Richard Newfarmer IGC Country Director for Uganda, Rwanda and South Sudan, warned, however, that rapid advances in artificial intelligence could also create significant risks, including job displacement, widening inequality and concerns over human control of increasingly powerful technologies.
He also pointed to disruptions in health services and reduced access to some imported medicines, which he linked partly to cuts in development assistance and fiscal pressures in developed countries.
Meanwhile, Teddy Nalubega, an internationally recognised expert in Responsible and Ethical AI, Digital transformation, and Robotics, said AI should not be viewed merely as a coding tool but as a technology capable of reshaping economies and societies.
“Technology alone cannot give us the benefits we want. We must identify our binding constraints and use AI to turn them into solutions,” Nalubega said.
Financial system needs to support productive investment
Francis Mwesigye Chief Economist and Director for Economic Research and Knowledge Management, Uganda Development Bank said Uganda’s financial system needed to change if it was to provide the investment required to achieve the Tenfold Growth Strategy.
He said much of the available credit continued to flow into real estate, trade and personal loans, leaving productive sectors and innovative ventures with limited access to finance.
“To fund the scale of ambition behind the Tenfold Growth agenda, Uganda’s financial system has to evolve,” Mwesigye said.
He called for greater financing of productive sectors and innovative businesses, noting that many university-linked ventures and startups struggle to access loans because they lack collateral or an established track record.
Mwesigye also pointed to rising public debt and the increasing share of government revenue committed to debt servicing, arguing that greater private-sector investment would be essential for sustainable long-term growth.
He said Uganda needed to do things differently if it was to achieve its ambition of becoming a US$ 500 billion economy within 15 years.
Contributing to the debate, Anna Vitali, a research affiliate at IGC, said: “Startups want equity; they don’t want debt. Why? Because they are high-reward but also high-risk ventures.”
Services and industrial policy
Vitali said Uganda’s industrial policy should focus on industries capable of generating learning, productivity gains and quality employment rather than being restricted to particular sectors.
“Industrial policy should really be about promoting dynamic industries, regardless of the sector they fall under,” she said.
She said digital technologies were reducing the importance of geographical distance and enabling people and businesses to transact without being in the same location.
Vitali argued that services deserved greater attention because of their potential to generate large economic multipliers.
Speaking of Uganda’s rural industrialisation at the forum, Ezra Muhumuza Rubanda, the Executive Director of Uganda Manufacturers Association [UMA], argued that it cannot be achieved without local economic development. “Every district should have an industrialisation strategy that connects local resources to production, markets and jobs,” said Muhumuza.
The forum is expected to provide policy recommendations on how Uganda can harness technology, investment, finance and industrial development to accelerate productivity and deliver the economic transformation envisaged under the Tenfold Growth Strategy.
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