PRETORIA, August 2, 2025 –– South Africa remains the world’s top producer and exporter of macadamia nuts, but the industry is bracing for a turbulent period as export volumes face pressure from adverse weather and rising tariffs in key markets.
According to a new report by the United States Department of Agriculture [USDA], production in 2025 is projected to decline by four percent compared to 2024. The reduction is attributed to erratic weather conditions across South Africa’s main macadamia-producing provinces – Mpumalanga, Limpopo, and KwaZulu-Natal – which have disrupted flowering and reduced nut quality.
Despite the setback, the industry continues to grow, fuelled by strong international demand and sustained investment in orchard expansion. Over the past decade, macadamia production in South Africa has grown at an average annual rate of nine percent, with planted area increasing more than tenfold from 6,750 hectares in 2001 to 81,302 hectares in 2024.
“South Africa’s farmers are investing in precision farming and upgraded processing infrastructure to meet international standards and maintain their position as global leaders,” the report noted.
However, the upcoming 30 percent import tariff on shelled macadamia nuts entering the United States – set to take effect on August 1, 2025 – poses a serious threat to the industry. The US currently accounts for 31 percent of South Africa’s shelled macadamia exports, particularly for premium-grade “halves and pieces” used in processed foods.
Until April 2025, South Africa benefitted from duty-free access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act [AGOA]. A 10 percent tariff has since been in place, but the increase to 30 percent will see South Africa at a competitive disadvantage, especially compared to Australia, which will continue to face only a 10 percent tariff.
Industry stakeholders have already reported a surplus of certain styles, such as the Style 4L grade, as orders from the US declined in anticipation of the tariff hike.
In addition to trade headwinds, the macadamia sector is contending with domestic challenges. These include declining prices, which fell by nearly 50 percent in 2023, deteriorating transport infrastructure, and rising incidents of orchard theft.
Nonetheless, South Africa maintains a strong global presence. In 2024, it accounted for 42 percent of global in-shell macadamia exports and 47 percent of shelled macadamia exports. China remains the dominant market for in-shell nuts, absorbing 95 percent of exports in that category, while South Africa holds a 52 percent market share of shelled macadamia imports to the US.
The USDA report also highlights the emergence of domestic demand, which, while still small, is growing due to health trends and increasing product visibility in retail chains such as Woolworths and Pick n Pay. Macadamia-based products, including nut butters, oils, granola, milk alternatives, and confectionery, are becoming more accessible to South African consumers.
With over 1,100 commercial growers and nearly 400,000 macadamia trees sold in 2024 alone, the country’s production outlook remains positive. Despite a temporary production dip and looming trade constraints, the South African macadamia industry is investing heavily to preserve its status as a global leader in the nut trade.
Buy your copy of thecooperator magazine from one of our country-wide vending points or an e-copy on emag.thecooperator.news
-
-
-
-
