Regional weatherman warns of heavier rainfall in the months ahead
According to the forecast, western and eastern South Sudan, north-eastern and south-western Kenya, most parts of Somalia, coastal areas of Tanzania, and isolated parts of Uganda and Ethiopia are likely to experience near-normal to above-normal rainfall
KAMPALA, February 2, 2026 — The regional body responsible for weather monitoring in Eastern Africa has warned that the region is likely to experience wetter-than-normal conditions from February through to May 2026.
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre [ICPAC] says above-average rainfall is expected across much of the region, with countries including Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Somalia and Djibouti facing at least a 45 per cent probability of excessively wet conditions.
According to the forecast, western and eastern South Sudan, north-eastern and south-western Kenya, most parts of Somalia, coastal areas of Tanzania, and isolated parts of Uganda and Ethiopia are likely to experience near-normal to above-normal rainfall.
ICPAC has urged governments and humanitarian agencies to strengthen emergency preparedness, warning that the anticipated conditions could trigger flooding, damage food supplies and infrastructure, and put lives at risk.
However, drier-than-normal conditions are expected in coastal parts of Kenya between February and April. At the same time, an early onset of rains is forecast in most parts of Eastern Africa, particularly in countries in the Horn of Africa, with the exception of Ethiopia and South Sudan.
The agency has also cautioned governments to prepare for warmer-than-average temperatures across the Greater Horn of Africa. Higher temperatures are forecast over Sudan, Djibouti, Tanzania, Kenya, parts of Ethiopia and Somalia.
Such conditions, ICPAC noted, could adversely affect communities and livestock, underscoring the need for governments to equip health facilities with adequate response mechanisms, including medical supplies and essential medicines.
Speaking at the launch of the seasonal outlook, ICPAC Director Dr Abdi Fidal emphasised the importance of early warning systems in protecting lives and property.
“Early warning services are critical in mitigating climate risks, as they provide timely information that enables governments, communities and institutions to prepare for and respond effectively to climate-related hazards,” Fidal said.
He added that ICPAC remains a vital regional platform for building consensus on climate risks and translating seasonal forecasts into early action to protect lives, livelihoods and development across the Greater Horn of Africa.
Fidal further urged member states to scale up preparedness and anticipatory actions to reduce the potential impacts of floods and droughts, safeguard livelihoods and protect critical infrastructure.
The March–April–May [MA] season is particularly significant for Eastern Africa, especially the equatorial regions of the Greater Horn of Africa, as it contributes up to 60 percent of the region’s annual rainfall. Its performance is therefore crucial for rain-fed socio-economic sectors, including agriculture, livestock production, water resources and other livelihoods.
https://thecooperator.news/teso-and-karamoja-sub-regions-expected-to-receive-above-normal-rainfall/
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