The Eastern African region is likely to have a longer than expected drought stretching from October to December 2022, weather experts have predicted.
According to the IGAD Climate Change Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), the Greater Horn of Africa region is expected to have a longer drought, exposing more people to hunger.
Already Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia are experiencing very high temperatures and this is likely to continue. Uganda has experienced some rains, with torrents sweeping away crops in parts of the country’s north.
ICPAC said the dry weather will stretch all the way to Eritrea, Tanzania and most parts of Eastern Uganda.
On the other hand, some parts of Djibouti and Eastern Ethiopia as well as Central and North Eastern parts of South Sudan may experience above average rain, with warmer temperatures across all regions.
The Director ICPAC Dr Guleid Artan called on governments in the region to create quick response mechanisms to these predictions and avert loss of lives.
“It pains me to be the bearer of bad news, when millions of people in the region have already suffered the longest drought in 40 years. Sadly our models show with a high degree of certainty that we are entering yet another 5th consecutive failed rainy season in the horn of Africa,” Artan said as he released the forecast.
Populations in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia are to be the worst hit, he added. These needed help the most, he said.
The Horn of Africa has had an unprecedented prolonged drought that has caused deaths from hunger and a lack of water.
Millions there are still living in dire need of help. In Uganda, in the semi-arid regions in the east – mostly around Karamoja – several hundred people have died of hunger with many more under threat.
Government and relief bodies including churches have responded to the call and sent some food there but more is still needed, local officials said.
In Karamoja, livestock have also been lost. The same reports have also come in from the western arm of the Ugandan cattle corridor, including in Sembabule and other neighbouring districts.
The Executive Director of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Drought and Development – IGAD Dr Workneh Gebeyehu made and urgent appeal to international groups to send food aid as a matter of urgency.
He said up to 50 million people are at risk and more could be affected if the drought conditions persist.
“We told the world that 50 million people are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity this year across the region. Today with this grim climate forecast, I renew our call to national governments, donors and humanitarian agencies to adopt a no regret strategy and help us,” he said.
The agency further predicted that delayed rains are likely to affect at least 40 million people in the countries including Ethiopia, Somalia, Burundi, Western Kenya, Eastern Uganda, much of Burundi, Tanzania, South Sudan, and Rwanda.
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