Record Global Coffee Crop Forecast as Market Braces for Supply Rebalance

KAMPALA, March 31, 2026 — A new report released yesterday by Rabobank projects that the 2026/27 coffee year could deliver the largest crop on record, with global production expected to reach an unprecedented 180 million bags. The forecast not only surpasses previous highs but also signals a significant shift in global supply–demand dynamics.

Rabobank attributes the anticipated surge largely to Brazil’s impending bumper harvest, reinforcing the country’s role as the backbone of the global coffee supply chain.

Improved agronomic performance, increased on-farm investment and favourable weather conditions are expected to push Brazilian output towards the upper limits of historical potential.

Strong projections for Brazil underpin Rabobank’s bullish outlook. The bank’s analysis is supported by independent estimates from Hedgepoint Global Markets, which released updated figures alongside the report.

Hedgepoint forecasts Brazilian exports could rise to nearly 47 million bags in the 2026/27 harvest cycle—well above the 42 million bags projected for 2025/26 and exceeding the previous record of 46 million set in 2023/24.

Hedgepoint further estimates Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest at between 71.1 and 74.4 million bags, including up to 49 million bags of Arabica and as much as 25.4 million bags of Robusta. This broad-based expansion across both varieties is expected to push global coffee markets into a substantial surplus, enabling importing countries to rebuild stocks at a pace not seen in several years.

The release of these projections comes amid notable shifts in international futures markets. Coffee prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks, a trend Rabobank links partly to expectations of a looming supply surge and partly to speculative fund liquidations that have intensified downward volatility. However, the bank cautions that the recent sell-off may have “overshot”, leaving scope for a short-term rebound if market fundamentals stabilise or investor positioning shifts. [elevafinca.com]

Despite the optimistic outlook, weather volatility across Brazil’s coffee-growing regions remains a key uncertainty.

Hedgepoint notes that export estimates—ranging from 36.7 to 37.8 million bags for Arabica and 8.8 to 9 million bags for Robusta—highlight the sensitivity of forecasts to in-season climatic developments.

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