Global gold demand up 28 percent year-on-year in Q3
LONDON-The World Gold Council’s latest Gold Demand Trends report reveals that gold demand [excluding over-the-counter trading-OTC] in the third quarter of 2022 hit 1,181 tonnes, up 28 percent year-on-year. Strong demand pushed the year-to-date total to its pre-COVID levels. Gold demand was bolstered by consumers and central banks, although there was a notable contraction in investment demand.
Investment was down 47 percent year-on-year, as exchange-traded fund [ETF] investors responded to a challenging combination of markedly higher interest rates and a strong US dollar with significant outflows of 227t. These movements, alongside weakness in OTC demand and negative sentiment in futures markets, hampered gold’s price performance – contributing to an 8 percent quarter-on-quarter drop in the price during Q3 2022.
Despite these headwinds, gold continued to hold favour with retail investors who reacted to different market cues and turned to gold for its status as a store of value amidst rampant inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Investors sought to hedge inflation with bar and coin investment, driving total retail demand up 36 percent year-on-year. This was supported by significant purchasing in Turkey,up more than five-fold year-on-year, and in Germany, up 25 percent year-on-year at 42 tonnes, but also from visible contributions across all major markets.
Jewelry consumption continued to rebound and is now back to pre-pandemic levels, reaching 523 tonnes – 10 percent higher compared to Q3 2021. Much of this growth was spearheaded by India’s urban consumers who drove up demand by 17 percent year-on-year to 146 tonnes.
Similarly, impressive growth was also seen in much of the Middle East, with Saudi Arabian jewelry consumption up 20 percent since Q3 2021, and United Arab Emirates up 30 percent for the same period. Jewelry demand also saw a modest 5 percent increase year-on-year driven by improved consumer confidence and a dip in the local gold price, prompting the release of some pent-up demand.
Just as consumer gold demand firmed, central bank buying picked up significantly with estimated record purchases of nearly 400t in the third quarter. This pattern reflects insights from our recent central bank survey, in which 25 percent of respondents said they intended to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months.
Turning to supply, mine production [net of hedging] was up 2 percent versus Q3 2021, with gold mining seeing its sixth consecutive quarter of growth. By contrast, recycling was 6 percent lower year-on-year in Q3, as consumers held onto their gold in the face of surging inflation and an uncertain economic outlook.
Louise Street, Senior Markets Analyst at the World Gold Council commented: “Despite a shaky macroeconomic environment, demand this year has reflected gold’s status as a safe haven asset, underscored by the fact that it has outperformed most asset classes in 2022. Looking ahead, we anticipate central bank buying and retail investment to remain strong and that could help offset potential declines in OTC and ETF investment that may prevail if the dollar strength persists. We also expect to see jewelry demand continue to perform strongly in some regions such as India and Southeast Asia, while the technology sector will likely witness a further decline in the face of economic deceleration.”
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