KAMPALA– Global exports of green coffee beans totalled 9.75 million bags in May 2022, up from 8.8 mln bags in the same month of 2021, the International Coffee Organisation [ICO] said in its latest report, adding the global average price recovered to 202.46 US cents a pound since February.
ICO credited the 10.7 percent rise on stocks held from the previous period when social unrest in Columbia – one of the world’s largest producers – stalled exports.
“This was due largely to social unrest throughout Colombia,” they said in a statement.
Colombia is the world’s third-largest coffee exporter after Brazil and Vietnam. The country sells an average of 11.5mln bags of 60-kgs each annually.
In the January-May 2022 period Colombia’s coffee production was down to 4.5mln bags, mildly down from 4.7mln bags produced in the same period of the previous year.
Colombia was wracked by social unrest in April after government announced plans for a new tax that rioters said was unfair.
That tax was quickly withdrawn by the government, but not before it affected the country’s coffee exports – a key export crop.
Protests from that riot forced the closure of ports, which meant beans could not be shipped out. Officials said the tax had been suspended. A final decision awaited from government will determine whether rioters return to the streets or not.
ICO said in its report that in the coffee year (October 2021-May 2022), production slightly exceeded eight million bags, down 11% from just over nine million produced in the same previous period.
“Total exports of all forms of coffee were up 10% in May 2022 but are down 9.9% for October-May 2021/22 at 37.92 million bags as compared with 42.1million bags for the same period last year,” they said in their report.
The outlook for the future was maintained by the ICO, which groups the world’s largest coffee producers.
“The latest provisional outlook for total production in coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags. A 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags of the previous coffee year,” ICO added.
In October 2021 to May 2022, South America’s exports decreased by 9.9% to 37.92mln bags. During this period, shipments from Brazil declined by 16.0% to 26.36mln bags versus 31.39mln bags in October–May 2020/21.
Continuing issues with the availability of containers and reduced shipping capacity, albeit with reported improvements in recent months, together with a smaller crop harvested during its Arabica “off-season”, are the main reasons behind the sharp fall.
On the other hand, exports from Asia and Oceania increased by 16.9% to 3.72 mln bags in May 2022, and by 19.7% to 31.13mln bags in the first eight months of coffee year 2021/22. Vietnam’s exports during these periods increased by 16.1% to 2.44 mln bags, and 20.9% to 20.4 mln bags, respectively.
India’s shipments increased by 29% to 0.64 mln bags in May 2022, and by 35.5% to 4.87 mln bags in the first eight months of coffee year 2021/22. Exports from Indonesia increased by 8.4% to 0.52mln bags in May 2022, and by 5.1% to 4.91mln bags in October– May 2021/22.
Africa
According to ICO, coffee exports from Africa decreased by 0.9% to 1.29mln bags in May 2022 from 1.3mln bags in May 2021. For the first eight months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 8.65mln bags versus 8.82mln bags in coffee year 2020/21.
“Uganda’s exports have continued to fall, decreasing by 7.9% in May 2022 and 4.0% in October 2021–May 2022, as compared with the same period a year ago,” ICO said without giving reasons for that fall. Uganda is Africa’s top exporter of coffee.
“Lower production stemming from droughts in some areas of the country’s coffee-growing regions also continues to explain the fall in Uganda’s exports of coffee,” other sources said
Tanzania’s exports are also down 3.6% in the first eight months of coffee year 2021/22 at 0.78mln bags as compared with 0.8mln bags in the same period last year.
Meanwhile, exports from Ethiopia increased to 2.28mln bags in the same period, representing a rise of 18.9% from 1.91mlnbags,” ICO added. Ethiopia is Africa’s largest producer of coffee, even though it consumes it domestically.
Soluble coffee exports
Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 3.0% in May 2022 to 0.98mln bags versus 0.95mln bags in May 2021.
In the first eight months of coffee year 2021/22, a total of 8.19mln bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing an increase of 5.7% from the 7.74mln bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year.
As a result, ICO says “the share of soluble coffee within the total exports of all forms of coffee has risen to 10.1% [measured on a moving 12-month average] in May 2022 versus 10.0% in May 2021.”
According to ICO, Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 2.61mln bags in the first eight months of coffee year 2021/22, followed by India and Indonesia with 1.45mln and 1.224mln bags exported over the same period, respectively. Exports of roasted beans increased by 9.9% in May 2022 to 75,329 bags versus 68,539 bags in May 2021.
Consumption projected to grow
World coffee consumption is still projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3mln 60-kg bags in 2021/22 as compared to 164.9mln for coffee year 2020/21. In 2021/22, consumption is expected to exceed production by 3.1mln bags.
However, exogenous factors such as reduced global economic growth and increased cost of inputs, production and trade may affect both supply and demand in the remaining four months of coffee year 2021/22.
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