El Niño Could Cut Brazil’s Coffee Harvest by Up to 20 percent
The Brazilian Coffee Industry Association [ABIC] has warned that adverse weather conditions could lower the country’s expected production of 66.7 million 60-kilogramme bags of arabica and canephora coffee, including robusta and conilon varieties
BRASILIA, July 15, 2026 — Brazil’s coffee harvest could be reduced by between 15 percent and 20 percent due to the effects of El Niño, with extreme heat and irregular rainfall threatening to cut output from earlier projections of a record crop.
The Brazilian Coffee Industry Association [ABIC] has warned that adverse weather conditions could lower the country’s expected production of 66.7 million 60-kilogramme bags of arabica and canephora coffee, including robusta and conilon varieties.
ABIC Executive Director Célirio Inácio da Silva said that while such losses would generally fall within the range of normal agricultural fluctuations, the current climate conditions make the situation particularly concerning.
He, however, noted that coffee growers are better prepared than during previous El Niño events, having adopted more resilient farming practices, including advanced technologies and improved irrigation systems. These investments have strengthened farmers’ ability to manage climate risks and maintain productivity despite increasingly unpredictable weather patterns.
Despite these improvements, El Niño is expected to disrupt the coffee plant’s biological cycle, particularly the flowering phase in the second half of 2026. Experts warn that excessive heat and uneven rainfall could result in irregular flowering, making harvesting more difficult and affecting bean quality.
Wellis Caixeta of Minas Gerais-based cooperative EXPOCACER said inconsistent weather patterns could cause uneven cherry ripening, creating significant challenges for producers.
For the current 2023/24 season, forecasts indicate that Brazil’s coffee production could fall from an initial estimate of 58.8 million bags to 54.2 million bags. Although arabica coffee benefited from a favourable biennial production cycle, which resulted in only a modest increase in yields, conilon output declined.
Unusual rainfall patterns in southeastern Brazil have raised further concerns, with excessive rains contributing to delayed harvesting, premature cherry drop and deterioration in coffee quality.
In Espírito Santo, Brazil’s largest producer of canephora coffee, farmers have reported prolonged dry spells followed by intense rainfall. Luiz Carlos Bastianello, president of COOABRIEL, warned that persistent high temperatures extending into early 2027 could affect the development of coffee cherries.
While conilon production is already expected to decline by about 15 percent due to the crop’s natural biennial cycle, the full impact of El Niño on future harvests remains uncertain.
However, some regions have recorded more favourable conditions. In northern Brazil, Rondônia state is targeting a record harvest of three million bags, exceeding forecasts by the National Supply Company [CONAB].
Unlike many arabica-growing areas, Rondônia’s robusta coffee sector is expected to be less affected due to widespread adoption of irrigation and cooling technologies. Juan Travain, president of CAFERON, said robusta farmers have benefited from these investments, while many arabica producers continue to face challenges due to limited access to irrigation.
Overall, while technological advances and improved farming practices are helping Brazil’s coffee sector withstand climate pressures, El Niño remains a major threat to production levels and the quality of the world’s largest coffee crop.
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