KAMPALA, February 21, 2025 –– In January 2025, the International Coffee Organisation [ICO] Composite Indicator Price [I-CIP] for green coffee reached an average of 310.12 US cents per pound [0.453592kg], marking a significant 3.5 percent increase from December 2024.
‘‘This surge in coffee prices is the highest monthly average since April 1977, driven by various market dynamics and geopolitical factors,’’ says the ICO Market Report for January 2025.
Price Trends: The prices of different coffee varieties saw notable increases:
Colombian Milds and Other Milds both rose by 3.2 percent, reaching 351.93 and 354.47 US cents per pound, respectively.
Brazilian Naturals appreciated by 3.7 percent to 339.18 US cents per pound.
Robustas grew by 3.6 percent to 245.29 US cents per pound.
The New York ICE market was a significant driver of this growth, increasing by 3.8 percent to 328.94 US cents per pound, while the London ICE market grew by 3.6 percent, averaging 234.33 US cents per pound.
Market Dynamics: According to the ICO report, several factors contributed to the upward pressure on coffee prices:
Rising domestic prices in Brazil, the largest coffee exporter, with local Arabica and Robusta prices increasing by 15.2 percent and 6.2 percent, respectively, from January 20 to 31.
A reduction in Brazil’s 2024/25 coffee supply estimate by 600,000 bags, announced by Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento [Conab].
Uncertainty in the global economy due to the new US administration’s review of international trade, potentially affecting major coffee origins like Brazil, India, and Indonesia.
Potential interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, which could increase demand and further push up prices.
Export trends
Global green bean exports in December 2024 totaled 9.73 million bags, a 10.5 percent decrease from the same month in the previous year.
The decline was primarily driven by a significant drop in Robusta exports, which fell by 19.0 percent to 3.71 million bags.
However, Colombian Milds bucked the trend with a 32.0 percent increase in exports, reaching 1.39 million bags.
Regional Export Performance
Asia & Oceania: Exports decreased by 31.2 percent to 3.31 million bags, mainly due to a 39.5 percent drop in Vietnam’s exports.
Africa: Exports increased by 8.0 percent to 1.21 million bags, driven by strong performances from Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania.
South America: Exports fell by 2.1 percent to 5.6 million bags, with Brazil’s exports down by 7.4 percent, partially offset by a 22.1 percent increase from Colombia.
Mexico & Central America: Exports rose by 0.9 percent to 0.61 million bags, despite a significant decline in Honduras’ shipments.
The ICO report says the coffee market is experiencing a period of significant volatility and price increases, driven by a combination of supply constraints, geopolitical uncertainties, and economic factors. ‘‘As the market continues to evolve, stakeholders in the coffee industry will need to navigate these challenges and opportunities to ensure sustainable growth and stability,’’ the report says.
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