Coffee prices rebound as Middle East tensions jolt global market
KAMPALA, April 14, 2026 — Global coffee prices rose in March, snapping a three-month decline, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East disrupted shipping routes and drove up energy costs, according to the latest report from the International Coffee Organization [ICO].
The ICO Composite Indicator Price [I-CIP] averaged 273.70 US cents per pound during the month, a 2.3 per cent increase from February. The rebound was largely attributed to a fresh geopolitical shock linked to conflict in the Middle East, particularly disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery for global oil and gas shipments.
Roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade passes through the strait, and the temporary closure to certain vessels in early March sent fuel and freight costs sharply higher, triggering a surge in coffee prices during the first week of the month.
Volatile month shaped by global shocks
The report highlights a turbulent four-phase trading pattern in March. Prices initially surged between March 2-9, amid supply concerns and rising transport costs. However, this rally was short-lived.
By mid-March, prices fell sharply after forecasts pointed to a bumper coffee harvest in Brazil for the 2026/27 season, easing supply fears. Estimates from market analysts suggested production could reach as high as 75 million bags, prompting a market correction.
Prices stabilised briefly in the second half of the month before falling again towards the end of March as expectations of a global surplus weighed on sentiment.
Despite the volatility, price movements varied across coffee types. Colombian Milds and Other Milds rose by 2.0 per cent and 4.0 per cent respectively, while Brazilian Naturals gained 3.9 per cent. In contrast, Robusta prices fell by 1.6 per cent.
On futures markets, New York prices edged up by 0.5 per cent, while London prices declined by 2.5 per cent.
Exports decline despite regional gains
Global coffee exports painted a mixed picture. Total exports of all forms of coffee fell by 5.7 per cent year-on-year in February 2026 to 11.46 million bags.
Green bean exports — which account for the bulk of global trade — dropped by 9.0 per cent compared with the same period last year. Declines were recorded in most major coffee groups, particularly Colombian Milds and Brazilian Naturals, although shipments of Other Milds rose significantly.
Regionally, Africa stood out with a 5.9 per cent increase in exports, reaching 1.43 million bags, driven largely by stronger shipments from Côte d’Ivoire. However, this was partially offset by declines in Ethiopia, Kenya and Rwanda.
South America experienced a sharp downturn, with exports falling by 21.8 per cent, mainly due to reduced shipments from Brazil. Asia and Oceania also recorded a 4.7 per cent drop, influenced by lower exports from Viet Nam, partly linked to the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday.
In contrast, exports from the Caribbean, Mexico and Central America surged by 30 per cent, supported by a recovery in Honduras following earlier weather-related disruptions.
Changing market dynamics
The report notes a shift in the composition of global exports, with Arabica’s share declining to 60.9 per cent in the first five months of the 2025/26 coffee year, down from 65.1 per cent a year earlier.
Meanwhile, certified stocks showed diverging trends. Arabica inventories in the United States rose sharply, while Robusta stocks in London declined, reflecting ongoing differences in supply conditions across markets.
Looking ahead, the ICO warns that continued geopolitical uncertainty — particularly around energy markets and fertiliser supply chains — could have longer-term implications for coffee production, especially for the 2026/27 crop.
While the immediate impact on current harvests is expected to be limited, sustained high input costs and logistical disruptions may pose risks to future output, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile global coffee market.
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