GENEVA, September 15, 2026 – The World Economic Forum’s Chief Sustainability Officers Outlook, published today, finds that the global transition is showing clear signs of progress, backed by commercial and technological momentum, despite significant headwinds from geopolitical fragmentation and increased scrutiny of short-term performance.
The inaugural survey, conducted as escalating conflict in the Middle East disrupted the Strait of Hormuz and rattled global markets, found Civil Society Organisations [CSOs] navigating geoeconomic volatility with more conviction than caution. Some 63 percent expect global sustainability progress to hold steady or accelerate over the next 12 months, while three in four expect companies’ transition-related investment to do the same, driven by a clear economic argument [64 percent] and increasingly applicable technologies [56 percent].
The report describes the result as a “green divergence” – a transition in which different sectors and regions are moving at very different speeds. At the same time, the global green economy, now worth more than US$ 5 trillion annually, is on track to exceed US$ 7 trillion by 2030 and remains among the fastest-growing segments of the global economy.
“Chief Sustainability Officers are telling us the transition is no longer a question of ambition, it’s a question of execution,” said Sebastian Buckup, Managing Director at the World Economic Forum. “As companies deliberately anchor sustainability strategies in growth, security and resilience needs, execution speed and priorities increasingly diverge across regions and sectors.”
A widening green divergence
Despite geopolitical volatility, momentum has not stalled but has fragmented. Some 78 percent of CSOs expect geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds, from conflict to inconsistent policy and weakening multilateralism, to weigh on progress over the coming year.
Rather than a uniform slowdown, CSOs describe a green divergence, with some sectors and markets pulling ahead on the strength of clear economic incentives, while others stall amid policy uncertainty or a lack of conviction among boards.
AI’s double-edged impact
Some 73 percent of CSOs expect artificial intelligence to meaningfully accelerate sustainability progress over the next year, particularly in measurement, reporting, efficiency and risk modelling.
Yet 77 percent of CSOs identify the energy and resource intensity of AI infrastructure itself as its most significant negative impact. Data centres already account for roughly 1.5 percent of global electricity demand, highlighting how green divergence is playing out within a single technology.
Adaptation becoming the next clear priority
Some 85 percent of CSOs expect adaptation to become a greater global priority over the next three years, while 77 percent say private-sector investment will be decisive in scaling it.
Companies already managing resilience proactively are seeing their adaptation investments pay off. CDP estimates that businesses actively managing supply-chain risk have generated US$ 13.6 billion in savings to date, with a further US$ 165 billion in potential financial benefits still on the table.
“The conversation is shifting from whether to act on sustainability to how fast we can prove it pays off. CSOs today are expected to deliver a business case as rigorous as any other investment decision – on resilience, on AI, on the transition as a whole. The organisations that treat this as a growth opportunity, not a compliance exercise, are the ones that will be ahead when the numbers are finally called in,” said Katharina Beumelburg, Chief Sustainability and New Technologies Officer at Heidelberg Materials.
As the report highlights, “the challenge is no longer recognising physical risks but demonstrating the value of investing in resilience” – a shift laid bare this year as extreme heat and wildfires forced companies and insurers alike to confront the cost of being unprepared.
The clearest signal comes from California. Insurers had paid US$ 22.4 billion in claims from the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires by early 2026, while new analysis suggests that rebuilding affected communities to wildfire-resilience standards could cut projected future losses by around one-third.
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