Africa’s fuel dependency: A crisis waiting to happen
Heavy reliance on imported fuels undermines economic sovereignty, widens trade deficits, weakens currencies, and slows industrialisation
KAMPALA, August 13, 2025 — Picture this: for 30 days, petroleum product imports into Africa come to a complete stop. Across Lagos, Johannesburg, Kinshasa, Cairo, and Nairobi, endless fuel queues snake through the streets. Airports fall silent as planes are grounded. Trucks and buses remain idle. Hospitals and data centres go dark. Cities descend into chaos.
This isn’t an exaggerated disaster movie plot, it’s a real vulnerability hiding in plain sight. Africa produces more than five million barrels of crude oil daily, yet imports over 70% of its refined petroleum products. This dependency leaves the continent dangerously exposed to any disruption in global supply chains.
Anibor Kragha, Executive Secretary of the African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA), warns: “If imports were to stop, the collapse wouldn’t just be technical, it would be systemic. Africa’s reliance on fuel imports has immediate and far-reaching consequences.”
The domino effect of a fuel import halt
If refined fuel supplies were cut, the consequences would cascade rapidly. Aviation, trucking, and construction sectors would freeze. Jet fuel shortages would isolate countries. Millions of tonnes of goods, medicines, and food would be stuck at ports and warehouses. Diesel-powered generators critical for hospitals, telecoms, and banks would run dry.
Rural clinics would lose electricity. In megacities, water supply systems could fail. With transport stalled and power unreliable, food prices would soar, blackouts would spread, and unrest could erupt.
Entire industries would collapse within days. Mining operations in South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, the DRC, and Zambia would halt. Copper exports from Zambia and cobalt shipments from Congo vital for electric vehicle production would be stranded. Ghana’s gold industry would freeze. The economic damage would run into billions of dollars almost instantly.
Africa’s energy paradox
Despite its oil wealth, Africa remains refinery-poor. The continent’s 40+ refineries are often outdated, underutilised, or idle. Even Nigeria with a nominal refining capacity of 1.1 million barrels per day, boosted by the 650,000 bpd Dangote Refinery still imports over half its fuel.
In the Republic of Congo, crude production is set to double to 500,000 bpd, yet its CORAF Refinery processes only 24,000 bpd far below potential.
Meanwhile, demand is rising sharply. Africa’s population is projected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050, with energy needs expected to double. Heavy reliance on imported fuels undermines economic sovereignty, widens trade deficits, weakens currencies, and slows industrialisation. It also threatens the African Continental Free Trade Area [AfCFTA] vision by keeping the continent tied to external suppliers.
ARDA’s roadmap to energy independence
At the ARDA Week 2025 conference in Cape Town, the theme “Africa First” captured the organisation’s mission: to refine, distribute, and power African economies on African terms.
Kragha outlined ARDA’s five-point strategy:
- Expand and modernise refining capacity with commercially viable projects.
- Harmonise fuel standards to boost intra-African trade.
- Attract investment through transparency and risk-mitigation measures.
- Develop infrastructure pipelines, depots, LPG bottling plants, and logistics hubs.
- Build skilled human capital in regulation, engineering, and operations.
One flagship plan is to scale up clean LPG access, cutting reliance on biomass and creating jobs across underserved regions.
Building resilience before the crisis hits
For Africa to avoid a catastrophic fuel shortage, governments must streamline approvals, remove infrastructure bottlenecks, and unlock domestic capital such as pension and sovereign wealth funds for energy investments. Strengthening regulatory independence and technical expertise is essential to attract investors.
Breaking down internal trade barriers would allow fuel, capital, and technical skills to flow more freely between African nations. Strategic fuel reserves currently minimal in most countries must be expanded through national or regional stockholding frameworks.
As Kragha puts it: “Energy security isn’t a luxury, it’s a lifeline. Without energy sovereignty, there is no sustainable development.”
From vulnerability to opportunity
A 30-day fuel import shutdown would cripple Africa but it could also be a turning point. The choice is clear: remain vulnerable or invest in refining, infrastructure, and skills to secure long-term energy sovereignty.
Refining capacity isn’t just about fuel it’s the backbone of industrialisation and regional integration. With strong leadership and coordinated action, Africa can transform dependency into strength and power a more self-reliant future.
Fuel by fuel, refinery by refinery, Africa must choose to power its own destiny not in response to crisis, but in pursuit of opportunity.
The World Bank reports that around 600 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa remain without electricity, while nearly 1 billion lack clean cooking fuels hindering economic growth, healthcare, education, and job creation. To address this, the Bank and the African Development Bank launched Mission 300, aiming to connect 300 million Africans to power by 2030 through investments in generation, transmission, distribution, and regional interconnections.
Its strategy emphasizes a “just and equitable” energy transition, balancing clean energy goals with poverty reduction and economic needs. Renewable energy particularly solar, wind, hydropower, and geothermal is central. A 2024 report highlighted off-grid solar as the most cost-effective way to provide first-time electricity access for many. The Bank is also financing large-scale solar parks and other clean energy infrastructure.
While prioritizing renewables, the World Bank has debated the role of natural gas as a transition fuel, weighing energy reliability against climate risks. Strong grids, regional integration, and efficient utilities are critical, with examples like the West African Power Pool demonstrating success.
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