International tourism rises 2 percent in first quarter of 2026 despite global uncertainty
Europe, the world’s largest travel destination region, saw over 130 million international tourists in Q1 2026, a 4 percent increase, building on the strong momentum of 2025
KAMPALA, June 2, 2026 — International tourism increased by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2026 despite growing geopolitical and economic uncertainty, according to the latest data released by UN Tourism.
The agency reported that about 307 million tourists travelled internationally between January and March, around six million more than during the same period in 2025.
Travel demand remained strong at the start of the year, recording cumulative growth of 2.5 percent in January and February. However, growth slowed sharply in March to 0.4 percent as the conflict in the Middle East disrupted travel patterns and affected consumer confidence.
UN Tourism said the conflict is expected to reduce growth in international tourist arrivals by between one and two percentage points below its initial forecast of 3 percent to 4 percent for 2026, depending on the duration and scope of the crisis.
The organisation cited disruptions to flights to, from and within the Middle East, rising oil prices, jet fuel shortages in some markets and increasing airfares as major factors affecting travel demand. It added that higher travel costs and uncertainty over air connectivity could encourage tourists to choose destinations closer to home.
UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais said the conflict was having consequences far beyond the Middle East.
“The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is disrupting travel patterns well beyond the region itself, including rising inflation, particularly in transport and accommodation,” she said.
“Even amid this uncertainty, international tourism continued to show resilience in the first quarter of 2026, with 307 million people travelling internationally, a 2 percent increase on last year.”
Europe and Africa recorded the strongest regional performance during the quarter.
Europe, the world’s largest tourism destination region, welcomed more than 130 million international visitors, representing growth of 4 percent compared with the same period last year. Southern Mediterranean Europe and Northern Europe both recorded growth of 4 percent, while Central and Eastern Europe expanded by 6 percent.
Tourist arrivals in Africa also rose by 4 percent, with North Africa posting a 4 percent increase and Sub-Saharan Africa recording similar growth.
Asia and the Pacific registered growth of 3 percent, although performance varied across destinations. Oceania recorded a 9 percent increase in arrivals, while North-East Asia grew by 5 percent. Overall, arrivals in Asia remained 11 percent below pre-pandemic levels, equivalent to 89 percent of first-quarter 2019 figures.
The Americas recorded a 2 percent increase in international arrivals, supported by strong growth of 18 percent in Central America. South America, however, registered a decline of 1 percent.
The Middle East experienced the sharpest downturn, with international arrivals falling by 14 percent during the quarter. Despite the regional decline, Egypt recorded a 16 percent increase in arrivals.
Among destinations reporting the strongest growth in tourist arrivals during the first three months of 2026 were Paraguay [46 percent], New Zealand [45 percent], El Salvador [43 percent], Mongolia [39 percent], Palau [37 percent] and Uzbekistan [37 percent].
According to a survey of tourism experts conducted by UN Tourism, the Middle East conflict, rising transport costs and higher accommodation prices are the leading challenges facing the sector in 2026.
Nearly two-thirds of experts surveyed said the conflict was negatively affecting travel demand in their destinations, while 61 percent reported a decline in inbound tourism.
Looking ahead, UN Tourism’s Confidence Index indicated cautious optimism for the Northern Hemisphere summer season between May and August.
Tourism professionals gave the period a confidence score of 105 on a scale of 0 to 200, lower than the score of 117 recorded for January to April.
Around 39 percent of experts expected tourism performance to improve during the four-month period, while 28 percent anticipated similar results to those recorded in 2025. About 31 percent expected conditions to worsen.
The report noted that continued uncertainty over the conflict, flight disruptions, higher oil prices and potential jet fuel shortages could affect travel costs, bookings and consumer confidence in the months ahead.
UN Tourism said travellers were increasingly seeking value for money and may continue to favour destinations closer to home as travel costs remain elevated.
According to the International Air Transport Association [IATA], international air traffic grew by 4 percent in the first quarter of 2026, although traffic in the Middle East declined by 16 percent.
Global hotel occupancy reached 64 percent in March, matching levels recorded a year earlier. Europe, the Americas and Asia-Pacific reported the highest occupancy rates at 65 percent, while Africa recorded 56 percent and the Middle East 48 percent.
Occupancy rates in the Middle East fell significantly to 48 percent in March from 75 percent in January, reflecting the impact of the ongoing conflict on the region’s tourism industry.
Buy your copy of thecooperator magazine from one of our country-wide vending points or an e-copy on emag.thecooperator.news
