Global coffee prices decline 2.7 percent in April 2026, says ICO report
Prices across all major coffee categories declined during the month, with Robusta recording the steepest fall
KAMPALA, May 19, 2026 — Global coffee prices fell in April as improving supply prospects outweighed fears over rising shipping and energy costs linked to tensions in the Middle East, according to the latest report by the International Coffee Organization [ICO].
The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 266.24 US cents per pound in April 2026, representing a 2.7 percent decline from March, as markets reacted to forecasts of stronger global production despite ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
The report said the closure of the strategic shipping route since March 4had pushed crude oil prices up by 55.8 percent and freight costs by 43.6 percent between late February and the end of April. However, traders appeared more influenced by expectations of increased global coffee supplies.
Prices across all major coffee categories declined during the month, with Robusta recording the steepest fall. Robusta prices dropped 6.9 percent to 164.64 US cents per pound, while Brazilian Naturals fell 2.1 percent to 313.76 US cents. Colombian Milds and Other Milds each declined by 0.9 percent.
The report said the market had shifted its focus from geopolitical risks towards improved production forecasts, particularly for Brazil and the wider global market.
Coffee trader Sucafina projected Brazil’s 2026/27 crop to rise by 15.5 percent year-on-year, while Marex Group forecast a 14.3 percent increase. Financial services company StoneX estimated global coffee production would rise by 9.6 percentr in 2026 to 182.5 million bags, with world stocks expected to increase sharply.
The ICO noted that in March, fears triggered by the US-Israel war with Iran had initially pushed coffee prices higher due to concerns over fuel, fertiliser and shipping costs. By April, however, markets appeared to have already absorbed the geopolitical risks, allowing supply fundamentals to dominate trading.
The report highlighted growing concerns over the impact of the Strait of Hormuz disruption on coffee logistics and production costs. About one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through the waterway.
Fertiliser prices rose sharply during the period, with urea increasing by 47 percent between 27 February and 30 April. Brent crude oil climbed from US$73.23 to US$ 114.09 per barrel over the same period.
The ICO warned that higher fertiliser costs could particularly affect high-input coffee-producing countries that had not secured supplies in advance.
Despite lower prices, global coffee exports continued to rise modestly.
Worldwide green bean exports increased by 0.8 percent in March 2026 to 11.7 million bags compared with the same month last year. Robusta exports surged by 24 percent to a record 5.52 million bags, driven mainly by strong shipments from Vietnam.
In contrast, exports of Colombian Milds dropped sharply by 33.8%, while Brazilian Naturals declined by 16.8 percent.
The report said Arabica coffee’s share of total green bean exports fell to 59.6 percent during the first six months of the 2025/26 coffee year, down from 64.5 percent a year earlier.
Global exports of all forms of coffee rose by 1.6 percent in March to 13.59 million bags.
Asia and Oceania recorded the strongest regional growth, with exports increasing by 13.1 percent, largely due to Vietnam’s robust performance. Africa’s exports fell by 14.7 percent, while South America recorded an 8.3 percent decline.
The report attributed South America’s downturn mainly to lower Colombian production caused by excessive rainfall since late 2025.
Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 14.7 percent in March 2026 to 1.4 million bags from 1.64 million bags in March 2025. The contraction was largely driven by Ethiopia, whose exports fell to an estimated 0.44 million bags from 0.63 million bags in March 2025, a downturn of 29.7 percent.
Meanwhile, certified coffee stocks remained historically low despite some stabilisation over recent months. London Robusta stocks fell by 5.5 percent in April to 0.65 million bags, while certified Arabica stocks in New York dropped 10.1 percent to 0.55 million bags.
The ICO said current stock levels were equivalent to just 0.22 months of EU and US consumption, far below historical averages.
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